米製造業PMI、2月は58.5に低下 価格は急上昇 | ロイター
IHSマークイットが19日に公表した2月の米製造業購買担当者景気指数(PMI)速報値は58.5、1月の59.2から低下したが、依然非常に強い。
世界的な半導体チップの不足で自動車生産が打撃を受けたことが影響したとみられる。製造業の投入価格と産出価格は急上昇し、物価が今年大幅に上がるとの懸念が高まる材料になり得る。
製造業PMIは、多くの地域が厳しい天候に見舞われたことも低下要因だった。
新型コロナウイルスのパンデミックにより供給業者と製造業者はともに労働者に影響が出ており、モノの生産に必要な材料が不足する事態となっている。自動車メーカーは半導体チップの不足が影響し、一部のメーカーは今月、組立工場を一時的に閉鎖した。
供給網の混乱は広範な製造業とサービス業に及んでおり、原材料費を含む投入価格が上昇している。
製造業PMIのうち投入価格を示す指数は11年4月以来の高水準を付けた。製造業者は費用の増加を消費者に転嫁している。産出価格を示す指数は08年7月以来の高水準だった。
製造業の伸びが減速する一方、サービス業は伸びが加速した。サービス業PMIは58.9と、1月改定値の58.3から上昇。新型コロナの新規感染・入院件数がペースを落とす中で、当局がレストランやその他サービス事業の一部規制を緩和した。
サービス業の加速を反映し、製造業とサービス業を合わせた米総合PMIは58.8と、1月改定値の58.77から小幅に上昇した。
IHSマークイットのチーフビジネスエコノミスト、クリス・ウィリアムソン氏は、「懸念されるのは、企業のコストが急増し、モノやサービスの販売価格が調査開始以来のペースで上昇し、一段の物価上昇を示唆していることだ」と述べた。

マークイットの米価格指数が上昇、2009年のデータ開始以降で最高水準
米企業の仕入価格と販売価格を示す指数は2月に上昇し、いずれも2009年のデータ開始以降で最高水準となった。インフレ加速懸念が強まる可能性がある。
19日に発表されたIHSマークイットのデータによると、原材料コストの上昇に加え、サプライチェーンや輸送を巡る問題で価格が押し上げられた一方、需要はサービス業で強まり、製造業でも堅調が続いた。
IHSのサービス業PMIは高水準となった。新型コロナウイルス関連の活動制限措置が緩和され始めたことが背景。一方、製造業PMIは低下した。部品不足の影響で、製品納入までの期間が07年までさかのぼれるデータで最長となった。

IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI™
Despite headwinds of COVID-19, extreme weather and record supply chain delays, US businesses reported the fastest output growth for almost six years in February.
The data add to signs that the economy is enjoying a strong opening quarter to 2021, buoyed by additional stimulus and the partial reopening of the economy as virus related restrictions were eased on average across the country.
Business sentiment remains buoyant, boosted by hopes of further stimulus and the vaccine roll out, but it’s disappointing to see this not yet translate into stronger jobs growth. Many service sector firms in particular remain reluctant to hire, cautious about adding to overheads.
A concern is that firms costs have surged higher, driving selling prices for goods and services up at a survey record pace and hinting at a further increase in inflation.

Businesses in the U.S. reported the strongest monthly expansion in output for almost six years in February, spurred by accelerating service sector activity and sustained robust growth of manufacturing output.
(virus-related restrictions were partially eased)
(Exports of services fell, largely reflecting ongoing restrictions on travel and tourism.)
(The slower manufacturing growth was often blamed on extreme weather and existing widespread supply shortages.)
(the steepest increase in cost burdens  As a result, firms raised their selling prices  In line with strong demand conditions)
(Nonetheless, employment growth remained relatively muted, as service providers were reluctant to expand workforce numbers amid efforts to cut costs and uncertainty about the near-term outlook due to the pandemic. Manufacturing job creation accelerated, however, reaching the highest for just over three years.)
(Although service providers noted slightly weaker expectations, manufacturing firms signaled the strongest degree of confidence for three months.)
The headline Manufacturing PMI was buoyed in part due to a substantial deterioration in vendor performance (ordinarily a sign of improving manufacturing conditions).
Although expansions in production and new orders softened, rates of growth were still steep overall, as manufacturers noted stronger client demand. New export orders also rose further, and at a solid pace.
Nevertheless, supply chain disruption remained apparent, as suppliers’ delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since data collection began in May 2007. Key raw material and component shortages, alongside transportation delays, were often cited as factors behind worsening vendor performance. Longer lead times also led to declines in stocks of purchases and finished goods.
As a result, cost burdens were pushed higher. The rate of input cost inflation was the sharpest since April 2011, while firms raised their selling prices at the fastest pace since July 2008 in an effort to partially pass on greater input prices.
A strong rise in backlogs of work led firms to increase employment in February. The rate of job creation was the quickest since December 2017.
Finally, output expectations among manufacturers improved in February. The degree of optimism was the highest since November 2020 amid hopes that client demand will remain strong and COVID-19 restrictions will come to an end during 2021.